Senado dos EUA aprova isenção para aéreas de regras de carbono da UE

sábado, 22 de setembro de 2012 16:17 BRT

 Por Valerie Volcovici

WASHINGTON, 22 Set (Reuters) - O Senado dos Estados Unidos aprovou de forma unânime um projeto de lei neste sábado que isenta companhias aéreas do país do pagamento de suas emissões de carbono em voos europeus, pressionando a União Europeia a deixar de aplicar sua legislação relativa a emissões a companhias aéreas estrangeiras.
A Comissão Europeia tem feito cumprir desde janeiro uma lei que obriga todas as companhias aéreas a participar do Programa de Negociação de Emissões com o objetivo de combater o aquecimento global, no que resultou em ameaças de um embate comercial.

O Senado norte-americano aprovou o projeto de lei pouco após a meia-noite, enquanto se esforçava para completar suas obrigações antes do recesso que precede as eleições parlamentares e presidenciais de 6 de novembro.
O senador Republicano John Thune, um proponente da medida, disse que ela envia uma "forte mensagem" à UE de que o bloco econômico não pode impor impostos sobre os Estados Unidos.

"As ações do Senado hoje ajudarão a garantir que companhias aéreas e passageiros norte-americanos não serão obrigados a pagar a dívida europeia por meio desse tributo ilegal e possam, em vez disso, investir em criar empregos e estimular nossa própria economia", disse Thune em comunicado.

A senadora Democrata Claire McCaskill, outra proponente da medida, disse: "É revitalizante ver um forte apoio bipartidário à noção de senso comum que diz que norte-americanos não deveriam ser forçados a pagar um imposto europeu".

California link to Australia CO2 mkt a distant prospect-analysts

4:32AM ET on Monday Sep 03, 2012 by Thomson Reuters

 

WASHINGTON, Sept 3 (Reuters Point Carbon) - After announcing this week it will link its future carbon market to the EU's, Australia may look to California next as a potential emissions-trading partner, but the U.S. state may be less keen to cement a trans-continental link, analysts said.

On Tuesday, Australia announced it will link its emissions trading scheme to Europe's in 2015, a move hailed as the first union of two major emission markets.

 

The country's climate change minister, Greg Combet, told reporters that Australia will also pursue links with California, South Korea and New Zealand, which are developing their own carbon markets.

 

California officials have plans to travel to Australia in October to discuss potential market links with their counterparts, sources said, but some analysts and California officials said a tie-up between the two cap-and-trade systems would be a long way off.

California's reluctance to accept credits from U.N. carbon offset projects, as evidenced in the state's carbon market rules, signals that regulators are likely to be cautious when inking linkage deals with international partners.

 

"The opposition to CERs (certified emission reductions, or U.N. carbon offsets) and California's 'only in my backyard' approach to offsets will prevent any meaningful linkage with the EU ETS or Australia for the foreseeable future," said Emilie Mazzacurati, head of carbon market analysis at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon.

She said the state has already delayed formalizing what she said would be a much easier link to the Canadian province of Quebec, which is a member of the North American carbon market partnership, the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) with California.

 

State air regulators put off a planned vote to approve regulations linking the two markets in late June after the governor signed a law requiring that he review any plans to tie California's carbon trading system to similar programs in other states or provinces.

 

The state is expected to resume the Quebec linkage negotiations in the first half of 2013, a spokesman for the California Air Resources Board said.

"I think it's very unlikely that California would link with anybody outside of the WCI in the next couple of years," she said.

The ARB spokesman echoed that sentiment and said that for now California was solely focussed on getting its own system up and running.

 

When Australia launches its own emissions trading scheme on July 1, 2015, its emitters will be allowed to use EU Allowances (EUAs) to meet half their carbon emission targets, with the Australian scheme opening up to EU buyers three years later.

The link, as well as a decision to drop the A$15 ($15.56) price floor on carbon permits and ban on using U.N.-issued offsets, were designed to make it cheaper for Australian companies to meet its targets, analysts said.

Green groups said it would put pressure on the EU, which is suffering from record low prices amid an estimated surplus of 1 billion units, to speed up plans to reform its market by permanently cutting supply.

EU policymakers are mulling plans to withhold allowances from the first three years of phase three in a bid to prop up ailing EUA prices, which have halved in the past 18 months on oversupply and slumping demand due to stalled economic growth.

EUAs closed at 8.07 euros ($10.15) on Friday.

Meanwhile, California carbon allowances (CCAs) for delivery in 2013 finished Thursday at $16.30 per ton. Prices are expected to rise significantly after the state's first carbon permit auction takes place in November.

 

Mazacurati said California may consider a link to Australia and the EU in the more distant future, when both EU and Australian prices stabilize.

"Down the road, I could see California setting up a partial link with Australia and/or the EU ETS, where it might allow a limited amount of allowances from those markets for compliance in California," she said.

 

"This would lower prices and help with liquidity in the California market."

Others agreed that EU-Australia link can provide a good example for California and others.

"Cooperation like this expands the range of possible emissions reduction opportunities for both parties, and it could bolster the prospects for others to follow their example," said Dirk Forrister, president and CEO of the International Emissions Trading Association.

 

"We will be closely watching the process unfold between the EU-ETS and Australia and offering support to ARB in its ongoing process of linking with other carbon markets," he said. (Reporting by Valerie Volcovici)

Enough CERs to fulfill EUETS demand till 2012: World Bank Report

London, 2 June 2011: The World Bank has issued its annual report on the status and trends of carbon markets. The report assesses the various carbon reduction, mitigation and trading schemes planned or under implementation in developed and developing countries. It also gauges the supply-demand scenario of the Kyoto carbon market and provides with estimates of future trends.

The report notes that the demand for Kyoto assets, CERs, AAUs and ERUs has been decreasing. This can be attributed to the projection that EU-member states are likely to achieve their emission reduction targets set for 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol.

Demand from Government Sector (EU)
The demand from government sector in EU, Japan and Annex-B countries between 2008-12 has been estimated at 437 million tCO2, with EU-15 accounting for 72% of the total, Japan 23% of the total and all other Annex-B countries 5%.

Since most of the countries in the EU are expected to overshoot their emission reduction targets, the demand for Kyoto assets is likely to reduce from the initial estimate of 465 million tCO2 to about 300-330 million tCO2. Since the beginning of the compliance period in 2008, 132 million CERs and ERUs and 54 million AAUs have been purchased. Thus the residual demand till 2012 from the government sector is likely to be 129 million tCO2.

Demand from Private Sector (EU)
Demand forecasts from the private sector have increased by 28% from last year to 955 million tCO2 with EU ETS contributing 79% of the global demand. The report notes that most analysts believe availability of surplus allowances after the second phase of EU ETS ends in 2012.

However, some sector power and aviation are likely to push demand as they would be short of allowances. Power sector alone is likely to experience a shortfall of about 500 million tCO2 cumulative since 2008. Demand may also come from generators who accumulate allowance for the third phase (2013-2020). Additionally, changes in the energy mix (like Germany's recent change in nuclear policy) and increase in global energy prices may further push demand from the power sector.

The aviation sector will face auctioning of allowances in 2012 which would result in demand of 50 million tCO2 likely to be filled by CERs, ERUs or Aviation allowances.

About 25% of the 1.6 billion CERs contracted in EU ETS so far are from HFC decomposition projects and adipic acid projects, since these CERs would be banned at the end of Phase II, some generators are likely to surrender allowances more than their shortfalls and bank some of the allowances for Phase III. All in all, the demand for Kyoto assets from EU ETS between 2008-12 is estimated to be 750 million tCO2 which is likely to be fulfilled easily through already contracted CERs and ERUs.

Supply of Kyoto Assets
The report expects that about 1,150 million CERs would be issued by 2012 with half of these issued to HFC and adipic acid projects. The supply projections of CERs has increased by 12% from last year mainly due to changes in the CDM pipeline — starting date of crediting period for projects was forwarded, the average number of projects entering the CDM pipeline over the last 15 months has been the highest-ever.

215 million ERUs are expected to be issued by 2012 with Russia likely to contribute as much as 50%. Several European countries like Slovakia have announced intentions to sell over 1.5 billion AAUs which clearly outnumber the actual demand for AAUs.

The total demand for Kyoto assets from EU, Japan and other Annex-B countries between 2008-12 is estimated to be 1,392 billion tCO2. 1,085 billion tCO2 have so far been contracted as ERUs and CERs while 245 million have been contracted as AAUs. This leaves a residual demand of 136 million tCO2.

For more information about this article, contact: mridul@climate-connect.co.uk

Em 2010 Mercado de carbono deve crescer 33% ///Carbono Brasil - Point Carbon

Contrariando previsões de outras consultorias, relatório da Point Carbon estima que mercado feche este ano valendo US$ 170 bilhões, valorizado pela alta de preços na Europa, pelo crescimento do RGGI e pela perspectiva da criação de um cap and trade nos EUA. Poucas semanas atrás, a Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) divulgou um estudo no qual afirmava que o mercado de carbono em 2010 iria viver um período de retração. Logo após isso, foi a vez dos analistas do Bank of America/Merrill Lynch dizerem que por causa das incertezas da regulamentação futura e da queda dos preços do gás natural o mercado estaria sobre uma “nuvem grande e escura”. Mas aparentemente existe uma luz no fim do túnel. A Point Carbon publicou nesta sexta-feira (29) o relatório "Outlook for 2010 and Beyond", em que afirma que o mercado deve crescer 33% em relação a 2009 e fechar o ano valendo US$ 170 bilhões. Em 2009 o mercado fechou em US$ 136 bilhões, contra US$ 133 bilhões em 2008 e US$ 58 bilhões em 2007. O maior crescimento virá, segundo a Point Carbon, da Iniciativa Regional de Gases do Efeito Estufa (RGGI) que reúne 10 estados norte-americanos. O relatório prevê que 985 Mt CO2e, avaliados em US$ 2,2 bilhões, sejam negociados pelo RGGI, um crescimento de 29% com relação a 2009. Com isso, a Iniciativa seria responsável por 12% do mercado global neste ano. O volume negociado no Esquema de Comércio de Emissões da União Européia (EU ETS) deve permanecer no mesmo patamar de 2009, com algo em torno de 5.4 Gt de CO2e negociadas. O EU ETS irá se manter como o maior mercado global, com 64% das transações, e deve fechar o ano valendo US$ 134 bilhões, uma alta de mais de 30% com relação ao valor de 2009, US$ 100 bilhões. Os preços também devem subir, a estimativa é de € 18 por tonelada, contra os atuais €12,96. O mercado de Certificados de Emissões Reduzidas (RCEs) do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) irá aumentar apesar das incertezas políticas. A Point Carbon afirma que serão negociados 1.8 Gt em 2010, 11% a mais do que em 2009, ao valor de US$ 31 bilhões. Entretanto a falta de políticas pós-Kyoto vão levar a uma queda nas negociações de RCEs primárias. Elas alcançarão apenas 240 Mt CO2e em 2010, no valor de US$ 3 bilhões. Já as secundárias irão se beneficiar e alcançarão o volume de 1,5Gt, atingindo US$ 267 bilhões. Incertezas Porém, a consultoria disse que ainda existem muitas dúvidas, a maioria relacionada com o futuro do cap and trade nos EUA e com os rumos das negociações climáticas depois da frustrante conferência do Clima em Copenhague. Por causa disso, o volume negociado em 2010 deve ser apenas 5% acima de 2009, em um total de 8,4 bilhões de CO2e. Se o cap and trade nos EUA for aprovado, esse mercado deve ultrapassar com facilidade o volume negociado no EU ETS e será a grande força mundial no setor. Entretanto, a Point Carbon estima que a possibilidade de aprovação dessa legislação no Congresso ainda em 2010 seja de apenas 20%. “O quadro geral é que sistemas de cap and trade como o EU ETS e o RGGI terão volumes estáveis ou em crescimento. Ao contrário, os mercados ligados a projetos de MDL sofrerão devido às incertezas pós-2012. Mas a grande incógnita segue sendo a criação do mercado norte-americano até o fim do ano”, resumiu Endre Tvinnereim, um dos autores do relatório. Fonte: Carbono Brasil